I don’t think most Americans understand just how much trouble the country is in. We are backing ourselves into a corner. Our debt-laden economy is highly sensitive to increases in long-term interest rates, and those since 2003 have become largely determined by foreign capital inflows from central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and other official (as opposed to private) sources. If a significant geopolitical shift away from financial support of the U.S. takes place–due to, say, military conflict between U.S. creditors, or perhaps due to rising economic and financial crisis at home–the source of those inflows may quickly dry up. One reasonable estimate I read forecasts a 2 percent increase in the ten-year Treasury bond per year that inflows stop and holdings merely remain constant. That will tend to increase mortgage rates and slow the U.S. housing market and economy further.
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